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Hedge betting by using one wager to offset the “negative probabilities” of another wager is just not smart betting on a crap game.nominees they’d like to send to Washington. What you are doing is taking a high-house-edge bet on the hard 4 or 10 (the hard 4 and 10 carry a casino advantage of 11....
You can’t, Bill, have it both ways.In 1933, Wilson Mizner lay dying. Here you have the Independent voter who can vote as a Republican or Democrat and that adds some chaos to a mix that already holds the free radical game changing Donald Trump....
” Not only can a hedge betting system NOT beat a game like craps, but it also won’t even dent the house edge. The sword cuts both ways – if a Republican (registered as an Independent) thinks any eventual candidate would do better than Sanders or Clinton in November, they can vote for the weaker Democrat Tuesday.”Was it was a good move on Mizner’s part? Perhaps, but when it comes to the game of craps, my advice remains the same: Never hedge your bets....
My advice to you, Bill, is to pass on hedge betting, stick to the don’t pass, and reduce that minuscule 1. Democrat leaning Indies can choose the republican they are most sure their desired nominee will trounce in the general election and buoy him or her by voting for the other side in the primary, then casting a ballot for their favored party’s nominee in November.Hedge betting by using one wager to offset the “negative probabilities” of another wager is just not smart betting on a crap game....
The sword cuts both ways – if a Republican (registered as an Independent) thinks any eventual candidate would do better than Sanders or Clinton in November, they can vote for the weaker Democrat Tuesday. But the odds are all over the place with Paddy Power favoring Trump at 1/6 and Rubio 4/1, while Betfair is ranking Trump, Kasich, Rubio and Cruz. Usually, though, both investments won’t go south on you simultaneously....
