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In 1933, Wilson Mizner lay dying.Hedge betting by using one wager to offset the “negative probabilities” of another wager is just not smart betting on a crap game. As of this morning Clinton is even to take the presidency and Rubio is -150 to Trump’s +160....
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He was fifty-eight, and all his life he had been a gamester.New Hampshire offers particularly good variables for a gambling, rather than fact-based bettor. New Hampshire voters will choose between two Democrats and a field of Republican candidates....
Are bookies better at predicting elections than the national polls? That question has yes and no answers, and to our knowledge has never been determined by a recognized and scientifically controlled study. Here you have the Independent voter who can vote as a Republican or Democrat and that adds some chaos to a mix that already holds the free radical game changing Donald Trump. But if you followed trusted lines rather than most of the polls in the 2012 presidential race you knew the results well ahead of November 4th – much to the chagrin of the losing side....
